Welcome to Matt Berkley’s
website. Social science Music al-Megrahi
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I am a Matt Berkley who’s based in
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Questioning social science
One of my interests is in large-scale social
science. I have been questioning aspects of this especially
since 2000, when I found economists traditionally claimed to know average
outcomes for the poorest without looking at how many survived. This
idea was used both for reporting progress and for recommending policies. The average will rise if the poorest die.
A similar problem affects Millennium Goal indicators.
In some countries average incomes had risen while
life expectancy fell due to AIDS. The average rise is not the same
thing as the rise in the average.
I also found economists saying they had data on economic benefits to the
poorest without looking at any relevant prices. These and other errors
seemed to be widespread in international development policy discussions among
academics, journalists, politicians and charities.
The existence of the errors may help explain
failure in many Millennium Goal indicators, and why in a world of plenty many people
do not have enough to eat.
Benn and UN
experts differ over global food needs
The
A
non-economist's view of some World Bank aims, reporting and policy research
Traditional macroeconomists’ claims about prosperity and policies have
structural biases against long life, cheap food, and ownership of land.
(2004)
The
survival error in social science goes beyond economics
An error in some Millennium Goal indicators may reveal inadequacy in social
science education.
Social
science and government aims
Proposed standards for large-scale goals and
research. Explains basic distinctions sometimes ignored in key reporting and
policy advice about starving people.
Examples are: income vs profit; prices vs cost of living; rise in
average vs average rise; etc. Standards are necessary for meaningful
discussion of future aims and past evidence. 2006.
Five axioms, four puzzles
and four suggestions on hunger in the human species
Puzzling features of global statistics
- such as discrepancies in progress between Millennium Goal indicators -
may be partially due to social scientists’ errors. Axioms may be needed
for social scientists. (2004)
Discoverer
of global poverty error calls for statistics on survival
People who used per
capita statistics, such as economists talking about “dollar per person per day”
for Millennium Goal indicator 1, failed to take into account that average food
needs are rising because the proportion of adults is going up. Article in Addis Tribune, week of
Thoughts
on the adequacy of social science
Correspondence and other documents 2000-3. With
quotations from others.
An error in the “poverty
reduction” debate and in traditional economic analysis
Error is to claim to have added up individuals’ progress among the
poorest while ignoring death rates.
Inflation and poverty
Challenges part of the idea, common among economists, that income
measures profit. 2003.
Economics
is not utilitarian
Economists need to learn difference between “the average rise” and “the rise in
the average”. Contributor “pqwo” is me. 2002.
Economics
of survival
Letter to Professor Jeffrey Sachs as Chairman of the World Health Organisation
Commission on Macroeconomics and Health.
Explains that survival data are needed for adding up progress
of individuals.
25: A tool for understanding global
goals and statistics
Quick way of assessing politicians’ goals and claims.
New
draft list of standards for large-scale goals and social science reporting
Similar list to “25” with more detail.
Statistics and survival
Letter to editor of the Economist pointing out the almost universal
survival error in large-scale economics. October 2001.
Why macroeconomics is not
utilitarian
Longer article from 2003 on the survival error.
New directions in development economics: How to
make the Millennium Goal on poverty effective, 2003
The wealth of persons
Documents from 2003 with some information about me, and possibly a few things I
no longer believe.
Music
Numbering system for guitar tunings and other uses
Contact details
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