Writings by Matt
Berkley on the theory and practice of large-scale social science
Request to BBC for corrections
on global poverty
6 December 2012.
Time to end
the myth of official poverty measurement?
Written evidence to the UK House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee inquiry
"The economic impact and effectiveness of development aid". July 2011.
World
Bank Research Director’s response to Matt Berkley
Dr Ravallion here misleadingly claims to have “real poverty” trends even though
he does not know what the poor received for their money. I had pointed out his lack of data on food
price inflation. He uses national
inflation rates for all items, not for poor people’s items. October 2009.
Possible
link between errors in theory of economics and the financial crisis
"To cite
consumption expenditure statistics as indicating prosperity or poverty is to
mistake consumption (in the sense in which non-economists would use that word)
with spending….To the extent that parasitic activities were counted as
productive in conclusions about trends in prosperity, a similar error might be
thought to have contributed to the financial crisis."
8 October 2009.
25: A tool for understanding
global goals and statistics
Quick way of assessing politicians’ goals and claims.
Benn and UN
experts differ over global food needs
The
A non-economist's view of some
World Bank aims, reporting and policy research
Traditional macroeconomists’ claims about prosperity and policies have
structural biases against long life, cheap food, and ownership of land.
2004.
The survival error in
social science goes beyond economics
An error in some Millennium Goal indicators may reveal inadequacy in social
science education.
Social science and government
aims
Proposed standards for large-scale goals and research. Explains basic
distinctions sometimes ignored in key reporting and policy advice about
starving people. Examples are: income vs
profit; prices vs cost of living; rise in average vs average rise; etc. Standards are necessary for
meaningful discussion of future aims and past evidence. 2006.
Five axioms, four puzzles
and four suggestions on hunger in the human species
Puzzling features of global statistics - such as discrepancies in
progress between Millennium Goal indicators - may be partially due to social
scientists’ errors. Axioms may be needed for social scientists.
(2004)
Discoverer of global poverty error
calls for statistics on survival
People who used per
capita statistics, such as economists talking about “dollar per person per day”
for Millennium Goal indicator 1, failed to take into account that average food
needs are rising because the proportion of adults is going up.
Article in Addis Tribune, week of
Thoughts on the adequacy
of social science
Correspondence and other documents 2000-3. With quotations from
others.
An error in the “poverty
reduction” debate and in traditional economic analysis
Error is to claim to have added up individuals’ progress among the
poorest while ignoring death rates.
Inflation and poverty
Challenges part of the idea, common among economists, that income
measures profit. 2003.
Economics
is not utilitarian
Economists need to learn difference between “the average rise” and “the rise in
the average”. Contributor “pqwo” is Matt
Berkley. 2002.
Economics of survival
Letter to Professor Jeffrey Sachs as Chairman of the World Health Organisation
Commission on Macroeconomics and Health.
Explains that survival data are needed for adding up progress of
individuals.
New draft list of standards
for large-scale goals and social science reporting
Similar list to “
Statistics and survival
Letter to editor of the Economist pointing out the almost universal
survival error in large-scale economics. October 2001.
Why macroeconomics is not
utilitarian
Longer article from 2003 on the survival error.
New
directions in development economics: How to make the Millennium Goal on poverty
effective, 2003
The wealth of persons
Documents from 2003 with some information about me, and possibly a few things I
no longer believe.
…………………………………………….
Are economists' mistakes killing
people?
In 2000 I was stunned to find that the accepted procedure in economics was to
claim to know average outcomes for the poorest people in the world without
looking at how many survived. This idea was used both for reporting
progress and for recommending policies. The average rises if the
poorest die.
A similar problem affects several Millennium Goal indicators, within and beyond
economics. In some countries average incomes rose while life expectancy
fell due to AIDS. The average rise is not the same thing as the
rise in the average.
Also, economists and governments, in highly influential documents, sometimes
say they have data on economic benefits to the poorest without looking at any
relevant prices. Millennium Goal indicators suffer from this problem.
These and other errors have been widespread in international development policy discussions among academics, journalists, politicians and charities.
The existence of the errors may help explain:
a) failure on many Millennium Goal indicators,
b) why the poverty indicators are "ahead" of many others, and/or
c) why in a world of plenty many people do not have enough to eat.
It would perhaps seem at least irresponsible to
base policies towards the poorest on income or spending statistics without considering,
for instance,
i) what people received for their money,
ii) whether their debt levels went up or down,
iii) asset levels, or
iv) any assessment of what they needed.
.........................................................................................